2016 – “Business Cycle Synchronization Across U.S. States”

Joint with Luis Aguiar-Conraria, Haukur Viðar Guðjónsson and Maria Joana Soares in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 2194-6116.

Abstract: We use wavelet analysis to conclude that individual U.S. states’ business cycles are very well synchronized. We also find evidence of a strong and significant correlation between business cycle dissimilitudes and the distance between each pair of states, consistent to gravity type mechanisms where distance affects trade. Trade, in turn, increases business cycle synchronization, while a higher degree of industry specialization is associated with a higher dissimilitude of the state cycle with the aggregate economy. Finally, there is evidence that business cycle dissimilitudes have been decreasing with time, consistent with the previous findings coupled with the idea that information and communications technology make distances smaller.

Keywords: business cycle synchronization; continuous wavelet transform; trade

Access at: https://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2015-0158

Circulated previously under the title “Optimum Currency Area and Business Cycle Synchronization Across U.S. States”. Working paper accessible here.

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